The loss of the major city of Kunduz to the Taliban is a
stunning reversal for the Afghan government, deepening worries about the
ability of its security forces to take the fight to the Islamic militants.
Afghan officials
vowed to quickly drive the Taliban back out again from the northern provincial
capital where the insurgents freed
hundreds of inmates from a prison and
raised their white flag at points around town.
On Tuesday, the
Interior Ministry reported some areas had already been reclaimed and promised
"a big military operation" to come. The United States also appeared
to join the fray, carrying out an airstrike in Kunduz province.
As the world
watches, the embattled Afghan government can't afford to let the Taliban hang
on to a key population center.
Here are the
main reasons why the fall of Kunduz is a big deal:
It's the biggest Taliban victory since 2001
A U.S.-led coalition helped local Afghan
forces drive the Taliban out of Kabul, the capital, in the aftermath of the
September 11 attacks in 2001. But stamping out the Taliban across the rest of
the country proved to be an elusive goal.
The militants no
longer held sway in the main cities but remained a deadly foe, clashing with
foreign troops over Afghanistan's rugged terrain and launching frequent suicide
attacks in population centers. After 13 years and the deaths of thousands of
its service members, the international coalition ended its combat mission last
year, leaving Afghan forces at the forefront of the fight.
The loss of
Kunduz, even if the Afghan government manages to take it back soon, is an
ominous sign. It's Afghanistan's fifth largest city and the capital of the
province of the same name.
"This is
the biggest town they've been able to take since 2001," said Nic
Robertson, CNN's international diplomatic editor. "This is a significant
target and prize for the Taliban."
It highlights the weakness of Afghanistan's
NATO-trained forces
The U.S. government has tried to portray
the handover of combat duties to Afghan troops as a step forward.
"Instead of
Americans patrolling the valleys of Afghanistan, we've trained their security
forces, who've now taken the lead," President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address in January.
But analysts
have expressed concern about issues like corruption, poor recruitment and
problematic coordination among the different branches of the Afghan security
forces: the army, police and local militias.
The Taliban's
intent to try to take Kunduz was well flagged, and yet Afghan forces were unable
to hold the city despite outnumbering the attackers. "Since about April
this year, the Taliban increased their strength in the countryside to the north
of Kunduz and have essentially had it in their sights since then,"
Robertson said.
It complicates the next move for the U.S.
The fall of Kunduz comes at an awkward
time for U.S. officials as they debate what kind of military presence they want
to have in Afghanistan in the coming years. Gen. John Campbell, the top
commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, is due to testify before a
U.S. Senate committee about
the situation in Afghanistan next week.
The Wall Street
Journal reported last
week that Campbell had sent five different proposals to the Pentagon and NATO
officials on what to do with the roughly 10,000 U.S. troops currently in the
country, most of whom are there to train, advise and assist Afghan security
forces.
The
recommendations range from keeping U.S. troops at their current level or
sticking to the current plan to cut them dramatically to a small force by the
end of next year, the report said. In a fresh indication of the Afghans'
continued reliance on American backup, the U.S. military said it carried out an
airstrike in Kunduz province on Tuesday.
It shows the Taliban remain a force to be
reckoned with
The militant group hasn't had the
easiest year. ISIS has been reported
to be eating into its recruitment efforts in
Afghanistan, and internal divisions in the Taliban were laid bare after the
admission that longtime leader Mullah Omar had died more than two years ago.
But despite initial questions over whether the group would fall
apart, new leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour appears to have overcome the
bumpy start and can now point to big blow against the Afghan government in
Kunduz.
The Taliban
appear to have made the most of the first summer fighting season since NATO
troops took a step back. But there are still doubts about the militant group's
ability to hold onto large areas of territory.
"It can
destabilize far more than it can control," said a report in May
by the Brookings Institution.
It's a fresh blow for the Afghan government
The Kunduz defeat is an embarrassing
setback for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who's had a troubled first year in
office. He took power after a lengthy political standoff with his main rival
that paralyzed government. Problems have continued since then, including the
inability to find a nominee for the key role of defense minister whom lawmakers
will approve.
"The
country's deep and broad political divisions and wounds, exacerbated by the
presidential election, have not begun to heal," the Brookings report said.
The Taliban
resurgence and the increasingly apparent shortcomings of the Afghan security
forces are likely to do further damage to Ghani's leadership credentials.
"The army
by its retreat yesterday, and the police by their retreat as well, have really
shown that there are question marks over the government's ability to impose its
writ in Kunduz, at least in the short term," Robertson said.
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