The first Atlantic hurricane of the year reached major status on
Friday, strengthening to a Category 3 storm about 900 miles east of the eastern
Caribbean islands, the National Hurricane Center said.
But forecasts
call for a weakening trend as Hurricane Danny heads west, and CNN's forecast
track shows it could reach the Leeward Islands such as Guadeloupe and
Montserrat as only a tropical storm around Monday morning.
Danny had
estimated maximum sustained winds of 115 mph early Friday afternoon, the
hurricane center said, citing measurements taken by a National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration aircraft.
Yet the storm
was moving into an "area of unfavorable upper-level winds" that are
expected to help weaken it later Friday, the center said.
Danny is
relatively tiny, forecasters say, with hurricane-force winds extending only 15
miles from its center on Friday morning.
The hurricane
center cautioned that Danny's small diameter makes forecasting its strength
especially difficult.
"Danny's
compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in strength, both up
and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously difficult to forecast,"
the center said in a forecast discussion online on Thursday.
Danny on Tuesday
became the first named storm of the Atlantic season -- unusually, if not
unexpectedly, late.
Forecasters had
already said this year's season would produce a
below-normal number of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, in part because of this
year's strong El Niño, which is
causing strong wind shears in the Atlantic, hindering cyclone development.
Tropical Storm Kilo in Pacific could threaten Hawaii next
week
Meanwhile, a depression in the Pacific
strengthened into what is now called Tropical Storm Kilo on Friday, spinning
about 535 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Forecasters
believe the storm could strengthen into a hurricane by Monday, the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center said. A forecast track shows it could swing under
Hawaii before turning back toward it, possibly threatening the state as a
hurricane early Wednesday.
Kilo had maximum
sustained winds of 40 mph on Friday morning, the center said. Tropical storms
have maximum sustained winds speeds of at least 39 mph.
A different
Pacific storm -- a tropical depression -- formed Thursday and could become a
tropical storm Friday. It was about 850 miles south of Midway Island on Friday
morning, and a forecast track indicates it could be near Midway as a tropical
storm on Wednesday.
El Niño's effect on Atlantic hurricanes
Hurricane Arthur, a Category 2 storm, was the last hurricane to make
landfall in the United States when it came ashore in July 2014 between Cape
Lookout and Beaufort on Emerald Island, North Carolina, the National Hurricane
Center said.
It has been the
longest period to pass without a major hurricane hitting the United States
since reliable record keeping began in 1850, a 2015 NASA study said.
Though forecasters are calling for a below-average storm season
in the Atlantic, Hennen said any hurricane that does emerge this year can have
a strong impact.
Hurricane Andrew
struck South Florida and
south-central Louisiana in August 1992 with 175-mph winds, wiping out entire
communities, killing 23 people and causing more than $25 billion in damage.
According to the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center,
which has updated its 2015 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, there is a 90%
chance of a below-normal hurricane season and a lower chance of expected storm
activity in the United States this year.
Of the six to 10
named storms for this season, one to four storms are likely to become
hurricanes in 2015.
There's an even
smaller chance that one of these storms will transform into a major hurricane.
The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or higher storm a major
hurricane.
Also, the
Atlantic Ocean has had much cooler temperatures, which decreases the chances of
major storm activity.
Since 1995, the
United States has been in a high hurricane activity area, which typically lasts
around 25 years. But for almost a decade, the country hasn't seen a hurricane
greater than a Category 3 storm, putting it in a nine-year hurricane
"drought."
The United
States still has seen some big storms in the past few years. In 2012, hurricane-turned-cyclone Superstorm
Sandy ravaged the Northeast with
damaging flooding and powerful winds.
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