Boris Johnson's wish to pick fights with his old enemies risks making the UK a pariah

'No way out': Commentator predicts Boris Johnson's future

 

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government have spent much of this week fighting with the EU and rowing with a European human rights court, all while playing down accusations that they are breaking international law and pandering to his party's base.

On Monday, Johnson's foreign secretary, Liz Truss, revealed the long-awaited Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, a piece of legislation that, if passed, would allow the British government to unilaterally override parts of the Brexit deal it agreed with the EU in 2019.

Two days later, the EU responded by launching legal proceedings against the UK over its failure to implement parts of the protocol to date, while Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice-president, said that "there is no legal nor political justification whatsoever for unilaterally changing an international agreement ... let's call a spade a spade: this is illegal."

UK government officials responded angrily by insisting that the bill, if passed, would be perfectly legal. Suella Braverman, the attorney general who gave the new bill a green light, went on television to defend the proposed legislation. In doing so, she accused the BBC of painting the EU as "the good guys" and told ITV's political editor that his assertion the bill would break that law was "Remaniac make-believe."

On Tuesday, the Johnson government found itself cursing the name of another European institution, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), after it was forced to abandon a flight that would transport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The UK announced a deal in April under which asylum seekers in the country could be relocated and granted asylum in Rwanda. The UN's human rights agency had previously warned the UK that the policy might be unlawful, as it could expose those refugees to human rights abuses in Rwanda. 

Demonstrators protest outside of an airport perimeter fence against a planned deportation of asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda, at Gatwick Airport near Crawley, Britain, June 12, 2022.

 

The scheme had been widely criticized by human rights organizations, which succeeded in numerous legal challenges against individual removals but failed in their bid for an injunction suspending the flight. However, when the ECHR intervened on Tuesday night, saying that the last asylum seekers due to be on board had not exhausted their legal options in the UK, the plane was grounded. 

Again, government ministers responded by insisting that the plan was lawful. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab has since suggested that the UK will introduce its own Bill of Rights that could effectively allow it to ignore the ECHR. 

Johnson's willingness to have public spats with large, international institutions makes sense when you look at recent history. Both Johnson and his predecessor, Theresa May, picked fights with the judiciary and the EU during the most frustrating days of Brexit. This, so the theory goes among Conservatives, gave both leaders a boost among their core supporters for attacking elitist bodies that were blocking the will of the people. 

"Historically, Boris has done well hitting out at big institutions like the EU and courts," says a former government minister told CNN. "These were not artificial fights, both Rwanda and Northern Ireland are proper government policy. But the hardline way we've defended them suggests to me that Boris sees a silver lining," they added. 

In one sense, this logic makes sense. Johnson has been hit by scandal after scandal and has seen his personal approval ratings tank, along with national polling for his Conservative Party. 

He has had to fight off a vote among his own party to remove him as leader and on Thursday night saw his own ethics adviser Christopher Geidt resigned, saying that Johnson's government had put him in an "impossible and odious position."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks as he takes questions at the House of Commons in London, Britain June 15, 2022.

 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks as he takes questions at the House of Commons in London, Britain June 15, 2022.

So, a fight with the lofty elites in Brussels and Strasbourg over real red-meat Conservative issues like Brexit and immigration could be just what Johnson needs to get things back on track. 

However, every time a government becomes so fixated on domestic policy, it risks forgetting that allies and enemies around the world are paying attention. 

CNN spoke to multiple Western diplomatic sources who said that Johnson's government had cast a dark shadow over their perception of the UK. One senior Western official who has worked closely with the UK during the Ukraine crisis said that while allies still coordinated with the UK, the sense of concern that they don't know what version of Johnson they will get has become normalized. 

"He is not Donald Trump, but he is so unpredictable that it's easy for allies to think of him as being like Donald Trump," said a Western diplomat. 

A European diplomat told CNN that "it's hard to overstate just how much damage has been done. Trust has been hugely damaged." They pointed to the issue over Northern Ireland, saying that "on our side, we know that there are solutions to the protocol. But those solutions rely on trust. Why should we trust him not to tear up any new agreement in the future?"

Western officials say, with some sadness, that there were moments in the immediate aftermath of Russia invading Ukraine where they thought Johnson might start behaving like a "stable and predictable" leader, as the Western diplomat put it. 

A European official agreed, saying that "there were moments when we looked at the UK with some admiration and thought there might be some path forward. Ukraine was something bigger than our squabbles." 

However, the official continued that this feeling of optimism faded quickly, after Johnson compared the Ukrainian fight for freedom to Brexit. 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the National Service of Thanksgiving held at St Paul's Cathedral as part of celebrations marking the Platinum Jubilee of Britain's Queen Elizabeth II, in London, Friday, June 3, 2022.

 

Conservatives in Westminster have mixed views on how bad this all is. Some worry that Johnson's continued scandals and rhetoric are making the UK a pariah. Worse, they fear that a country like the UK -- a longstanding member of the rules-based, international order -- playing so fast and loose with international law sets a terrible precedent at a time when democracy is under threat in many parts of the world. 

On the other hand, some MPs think that Johnson's critics are getting worked up about something that normal people don't care about. They say, not unreasonably, that a G7, NATO member with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council -- and one that has in many respects led the way on Ukraine -- is not about to get cut out by its allies. 

Ultimately, Johnson's international spats are most likely to play out in the domestic political arena. Some will love that he is taking a hardline stance. Others will feel a deepening sense of embarrassment that this man is their prime minister. 

"If you are in Boris's position, then you may as well double down on some of this stuff. What does he have to lose?" a senior Conservative MP told CNN. "Either things are so terminally bad that he's doomed whatever he does, or he's got two years to turn things around before the election. So why not go out there and have fights on your own pitch?" 

That summary makes a lot of sense when you are sitting in Westminster, talking to people who spend too much time in Westminster. However, Johnson's decisions seriously impact the lives of people who spend no time in Westminster and for whom this really is not a game. Especially as the UK is going through the worst cost-of-living crisis it has suffered in decades. 

Johnson won't know if his red meat gamble has paid off with the public until the next general election -- unless he's removed from office before then. There will undeniably be people who see him as the same Brexit street fighter who stands up for Britain against the bullies seeking to do it down. 

But there will be an awful lot of people who think that instead of picking fights with the EU and ECHR, Johnson should be thinking of ways to improve their lives. 

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How a tiny European country took on China over Taiwan

 

Taiwanese and Lithuanian flags pictured at the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius, Lithuania on January 20.

A curious spat has unfolded in recent months between Lithuania, a small, Eastern European nation of fewer than 3 million people, and China, a superpower with an economy that could soon exceed that of the United States.

It all started last year, when Lithuania poked Beijing in the eye -- twice in the space of a few months.

First, it withdrew from the so-called "17+1" group, a forum in which 17 eastern and central European countries engage with China, before encouraging others to do the same. Given China's numerous business interests in the region, most notably the so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) focused on infrastructure projects, any kind of European pushback is unwelcome in Beijing.

Then in November, Lithuania became the first country in Europe to allow self-ruled Taiwan to open a de facto embassy under the name "Taiwan." Other such offices in Europe and the United States use the name Taipei, Taiwan's capital, to avoid references that would imply the island's independence from China. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said the opening of the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius would "charter a new and promising course for bilateral relations between Taiwan and Lithuania."

The move enraged Beijing, which saw it as an affront to its "One China" principle that insists Taiwan is part of China, rather than an independent sovereign territory, despite the two sides having been governed separately for over seven decades after a civil war. As a rule, those who want a relationship with China must recognize the policy diplomatically. 

 

The lobby of the Taiwanese Representative Office is pictured on November 18, 2021.

Lithuania says the new Taiwan office does not have formal diplomatic status and does not conflict with its One China policy. But Beijing reacted by immediately downgrading diplomatic relations with Vilnius. Lithuania also claimed that China has prevented Lithuanian goods from entering China, effectively creating a trade barrier. The Chinese government has repeatedly rejected these claims, blaming Lithuania for harming China's "core interest" and sending bilateral ties to a deep freeze.

Taiwan reacted by buying up Lithuanian produce that was destined for China -- including 20,400 bottles of rum -- and pledging to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Lithuanian industry to support the country in the face of Chinese pressure.

The spat has pulled in the European Union, which is backing member state Lithuania. Brussels sees Beijing's treatment of Lithuania as a threat to other EU nations, many of whom have deeper economic links with China and would like to deepen them further.

On Thursday, the EU launched a case against China at the World Trade Organization, accusing Beijing of "discriminatory trade practices against Lithuania, which are also hitting other exports from the EU's Single Market."

The WTO case could be just the start of the EU taking a more hardline stance on China, though there are reservations about whether doing so could prompt Beijing to retaliate in the form of trade wars or canceled investments in Europe.

'China needs to learn lessons'

In 1990, Lithuania became the first member of the Soviet Union to declare independence from Moscow's ruling Communist Party. It then joined the EU European Union and NATO in 2004 -- the very organization intended to be a check on socialist expansion.

In that context, a nation like China displaying aggression in its own region, notably against Taiwan -- as well as using trade as a weapon against smaller European nations -- naturally alarms those who remember life under Soviet rule.

"China needs to learn lessons because until now, they have been allowed to behave in a way that doesn't adhere to our values and rules, simply because they were so wealthy," Lithuania's former Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius told CNN.

"I don't see that bigger EU countries would have taken it upon themselves to stand up. Maybe from Lithuania it will spread to others and in time, Europe will stand united against a country that doesn't meet our standards," he added.

One of the reasons Lithuanian officials may be more comfortable than some nations in taking this stance is that China is a relatively small export market for the country. Only 1.18% of Lithuania's exports went to China in 2019 -- compared with 13.1% to Russia and 3.64% to the US -- though China is also one of Lithuania's fastest growing export markets, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

For Lithuania, this hardline stance is more than a moral mission. Officials who spoke to CNN say that by standing up to China, they also hope to send a message to Moscow.

Velina Tchakarova, head of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, explains that Lithuania has "been under permanent Russian pressure since joining NATO. Lithuania wants to set an example within the European members that no one will succumb to autocratic regimes in Beijing and Moscow."

Lithuanian officials told CNN they hoped standing up to China might set a precedent in the EU for pushing back on autocratic regimes. One senior Lithuanian diplomat said the endgame was for Europe to have more effective anti-coercion measures.

Brussels recently proposed a legal mechanism that would allow the EU to respond to economic intimidation in a "structured and uniform manner" by using a "tailor-made and proportional response for each situation" which could include tariffs, restricting imports and limiting access to the EU's internal market.

But many of the smaller EU nations are privately skeptical that their fellow member states -- especially those who trade extensively with China -- would back them when push comes to shove.

A strong economic relationship with China is a key plank of the EU's drive for "strategic autonomy," a term used in Brussels to describe the EU becoming more independent from US influences as a geopolitical power. The thinking was that by partnering with Beijing economically, Europe could act as a bridge between the US and China, while not getting squashed between the two.

Bigger member states, most notably France, have been strong supporters of the strategic autonomy drive. And while European politicians have grown increasingly uncomfortable with China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims, suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and aggression towards Taiwan, when it comes to hard cash, many European countries are not quite ready to alienate China.

Tchakarova believes that by "bringing China into the debate, Lithuania seeks to strengthen the US position in Europe, but also to warn Brussels and key member states (Germany and France) of the potential risks and dangers associated with bilateral relations with China in the future."

Essentially, they hope to force these countries to take a stand. So, will it work?

A delicate balance

Some in Lithuania think their hardline stance has already produced results. Officials point to the fact that France has backed them, along with the rest of the EU, and called on China to deescalate the situation. This is particularly significant right now, since France holds the EU's rotating presidency and is also in the middle of a presidential election campaign. Earlier this month, Slovenia announced that it too would seek to increase trade with Taiwan.

One senior European Commission official told CNN Brussels' position is that Lithuania has not gone against its One China policy, and that if China continues to be hostile, it must provide evidence that the policy has been breached, which Lithuanian officials are chalking up as a victory.

However, not everyone, even in Lithuania itself, thinks the strategy has been a wholesale success.

President Gitanas Nauseda said that while he supported opening the Taiwanese Representative Office, he thinks the name was needlessly provocative and Lithuania must now deal with the "consequences."

Beijing responded by saying acknowledging the mistake was a good start, but still believes Lithuania to have broken the One China principle.

Brussels has been getting its act together on geopolitical matters lately. After years of bitter backbiting, it may be that Brexit and the pandemic have reminded EU leaders that unity in areas of mutual interest means even small nations like Lithuania can use the mechanics of the EU to stand up to one of the richest, most powerful nations on earth.

Whether Lithuania's stand -- and the EU taking a stand along with it -- will result in any concessions from Beijing is another matter. A recent editorial in the outspoken nationalistic state-run tabloid Global Times issued a series of steps Lithuania must take to restore relations, and warned: "no matter what tricks they play, China will never give in half an inch on issues of principle."

But experts agreed the only chance, however remote, of forcing any concessions from China on the issue is for Europe to present a united front.

Benedict Rogers, a longstanding human rights campaigner and the chief executive of Hong Kong Watch, says that while "China has shown it is very adept at divide-and-rule and able to play countries off another ... when countries stand together and stand up against China together, Beijing's bullying tactics are less effective and pressure on China can have more impact."

For all this may seem a small spat, what's at stake is years of work in which the EU has tried to find a way to reconcile its economic relationship with China with its duty to member states and its moral values. The question is for how much longer that balance can hold.

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