Vladimir Putin has
his man in the U.S. presidential race: Donald Trump. On Thursday, the Russian
president reportedly declared Trump to be the "absolute
leader" of the race.
Putin -- a natural if
brawny showman who has posed fishing shirtless, shooting shirtless
and horseback riding shirtless -- also said of Trump: "He's a very lively
man, talented without doubt."
Thus did the man who
embodies the parody of homoeroticism from the 1970s endorse one who embodies
the parody of a blow-hard executive from the 1980s. But while Moscow has long
been interested in American politics, what inspired the man who has essentially
run Russia since 2000 to take the unusual step of commenting on the election
process of an adversary?
Two things: empathy
and desire.
Whether he knows it
or not, Putin practices a key tenet of statecraft identified by Mel Brooks. His
darkly comical musical "The Producers" features the number "Heil
Myself!" (also known as "Springtime for Hitler"), in which a
campy rendition of the German dictator sings, "It ain't no mystery, if
it's politics or history, the thing you gotta know is, everything is
showbiz."
The line could be the
leitmotif of the reality show that is Trump's campaign.
The Donald's approach
to politics likely reminds Putin of himself and he empathizes. Not only do the
two men share a love for spectacle and an appreciation of its ability to move
low-information voters, but Putin also sees Trump's self-reference as something
Moscow can exploit.
Putin famously began
his career as an intelligence officer. One thing the young Putin would have
been taught by his employers at the KGB's First Chief Directorate, the agency's
center for foreign intelligence collection, is to look for character flaws that
can be used to enlist a target as an agent or, short of that, an unwitting
helper. It's a fancied-up version of a con man looking for his mark.
Recent American
presidents have been easy prey for Putin. George W. Bush, who thought he got a
"sense of Putin's soul," mistook the Russian strongman for a friend.
Barack Obama believed that a change in diplomatic tone would alter Putin's
calculation of his nation's interests. Putin of course encouraged both
vanities. The invaded people of Georgia and Ukraine can attest to who sized up
whom better.
The cherry on the
cake would be a President Trump. Putin has no doubt observed that flattery
works well on The Donald: from his tweets to TV appearances to debate
performances, Trump is a lion to those who are critical and a lamb to those who
suffer his repetitive imprecisions silently.
Putin's giddiness
over Trump's personal flaws shifts to outright desire when the candidate starts
talking about U.S. policy toward Russia. In September, Trump said of the Russian leader: "I will tell you in terms
of leadership he is getting an 'A'..." As Putin put warplanes and a
base in Syria -- Moscow's biggest push into the Middle East and
Mediterranean rim since the Cold War -- Trump said: "Putin is now taking
over what we started, and he's going into Syria, and he frankly wants to fight
ISIS, and I think that's a wonderful thing."
This means that yet
another U.S. political figure has mistakenly believed Russian interests will
converge with America's. In reality, Putin has forces in Syria to shore up the
dictator, Bashar al-Assad, and primarily fight Assad's non-ISIS opponents. And
the "A" in leadership The Donald awarded Putin was earned by
ruthlessly suppressing domestic dissent, playing to the most base instincts of
the Russian public and launching foreign wars of aggression.
Putin will happily
pocket Trump's naivete. The Russian President said of the candidate: "He's
saying he wants to go to another level of relations -- closer, deeper relations
with Russia. How can we not welcome that? Of course we welcome that."
When Putin sees
Trump's unique combination of self-reference and self-delusion about Moscow's
desire to assert itself at the expense of the West, he sees gold. Furthermore,
he is assured that he could continue to expand Russia's sphere of influence --
perhaps even beyond the countries he has already invaded -- all the while
saying he is doing nothing of the sort.
The mendacity brings
to mind that other Mel Brooks tour de force on statecraft: the movie "To
Be Or Not To Be." In the film, another parody Hitler sings: "I don't
want war! All I want is peace ... peace ... peace ... A little piece of Poland,
a little piece of France, a little piece of Austria ..."
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