Moskva sinking: What really happened to the pride of Russia's fleet?

 

The Russian guided-missile cruiser Moskva rests deep beneath the Black Sea this morning.

Ukraine claims that it hit Moskva with missiles, causing it to sink. Russia has insisted the reason for the sinking was a fire. On Friday, the United States supported Ukraine's account, with a senior defense official saying that it believes that two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit the Russian warship in the Black Sea.

Whether the ship lies at the bottom of the sea as the victim of Ukrainian missiles, Russian incompetence, bad luck or a combination of all three remains disputed. What is certain, though, is that the biggest wartime loss of a naval ship in 40 years will raise troubling questions not only for Moscow, but for military planners around the world.

What caused the sinking?

The ship sank off the coast of Ukraine in the Black Sea on Thursday. Ukraine says it hit the Moskva with anti-ship cruise missiles and that these sparked the fire that detonated the ammunition.

Russia has put out its own version of events: Russia's Defense Ministry says a fire of unknown origin detonated the ship's stored ammunition and the resulting explosions left the Moskva with structural damage. It says the warship then sank amid rough seas as it was being towed to a nearby port.

According to Russian state news agency TASS report, which cited an unnamed source, the crew of the ship was delivered to the port of Sevastopol in Crimea. TASS did not provide any additional details about the number of crew members rescued from the ship.

The Moskva was armed with a range of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles as well as torpedoes, naval guns and missile defense systems, meaning it would have had massive amounts of explosives aboard.

US intelligence officials do not believe the ship was carrying nuclear weapons at the time of its sinking, two senior US officials with knowledge of the latest US intelligence assessment told CNN.

When was the last time a ship of this size was lost in war?

The Argentine cruiser General Belgrano was torpedoed and sunk by the British nuclear-powered submarine HMS Conqueror on May 2, 1982, during the Falkland Islands war.

The General Belgrano and the Moskva were of similar size -- each about 600 feet (182 meters) long and displacing 12,000 tons -- though the crew of about 1,100 aboard the General Belgrano was more than double the size of the Moskva's crew of about 500.

 

An undated image of the Argentine cruiser, the General Belgrano.

 

Russia has not disclosed the number of casualties occurred during the Moskva's fire and subsequent sinking. A total of 323 crew died when the General Belgrano went down.

What does the loss of the Moskva mean for the Russian war effort?

The biggest effect may be on Russian morale. As the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet, the Moskva was one of its most visible assets in the Ukraine war. Though Moscow carefully manages news about the war in Russia, it will be hard to hide the sudden absence of such a large ship.

And its loss will raise doubts about Russia's warfighting abilities, whether it was due to enemy action or accident.

"Both explanations for the sinking of the Moskva indicate possible Russian deficiencies -- either poor air defenses or incredibly lax safety procedures and damage control on the Black Sea Fleet's flagship," analysts Mason Clark, Kateryna Stepanenko, and George Barros at the Institute for the Study of War wrote in their daily war briefing.

Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain, said the doubts went all the way to the Kremlin.

"It raises questions about naval competence 10 years after (Russian President Vladimir) Putin announced he was going to restore the navy's capabilities, morale and professionalism," Schuster said.

"It seems he has not been able to keep any of his promises for any of Russia's military services," Schuster said, noting Russia had suffered setbacks on land too.

But analysts are split on what impact the sinking will have on the Russian invasion.

The ISW analysts see it as a relatively minor blow, saying the ship was mostly used for cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian logistic centers and airfields. Russia has land-based systems and strike aircraft that can do the same thing, they said.

However, they added that if it was indeed a Ukrainian missile that led to the sinking, the Russian navy would have to rethink its operations, possibly moving ships farther from Ukrainian territory and adjusting their air defenses.

In Washington, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the Moskva's main mission was air defense for the Russian forces in the Black Sea.

"It will have an impact on that capability, certainly in the near term," Kirby told reporters.

 

The Russian guided-missile cruiser Moskva is seen in a satellite photo in the Black Sea on April 10.

 

A lesson for China?

Analysts say the sinking will be carefully studied in East Asia, especially if it is confirmed that Ukrainian missiles struck the warship.

In particular, analysts will be searching for any insight it might offer into any potential military conflict involving Taiwan -- the democratically ruled island that Beijing's ruling Communist Party claims as part of its territory. Beijing has not ruled out the use of force to gain control of Taiwan and this has caused tensions with the US, which is committed to providing the island with defensive weapons.

Timothy Heath, senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corp. think tank, said the strike on the Moskva would underscore to both China and the US "the vulnerability of surface ships" in any potential military clash.

Heath said in such a scenario the US Navy would want to keep its surface ships well out of range of the anti-ship missiles Beijing has amassed on the Chinese mainland.

China, on the other hand, would be aware that Taiwan had been acquiring inexpensive anti-ship missiles similar to those Ukraine claims hit the Moskva, Heath and others said.

Because of that, "any potential (Chinese) invasion of Taiwan remains an extremely high risk mission," Heath said.

But some analysts said the Moskva's sinking has limited relevance for the situation in East Asia.

Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander who is now an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said there were too many differences between the situations.

The Moskva's air defense systems are not in the same league as the more modern Aegis systems on US Navy destroyers, and Ukrainian anti-ship missiles are not as good as Chinese ones, Shugart said.

And Soviet-era warships like the Moskva have been typically "known for their offensive punch, not for their defensive systems or their damage control," Shugart said.

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Some Belarusians want to fight Russians in Ukraine. They also hope to free their country from Putin's grip

 

This unit from a Russian ally is training to join Ukraine's army

In a wooded area on the Polish side of the Poland-Ukraine border, men dressed in crisp, clean, camouflage are given tourniquets. They kneel on the muddy ground and start to learn basic survival training.

They call themselves the Pohonia Battalion, a group of fewer than 30 Belarusian exiles living mostly in Poland and other countries across Europe, who hope to join hundreds of their compatriots already involved in the battle for Ukraine.

The aspiring volunteer fighters say that in order to free their country of Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip, he must first be defeated in Ukraine.

At an undisclosed location in Poland, the Pohonia Battalion trains with Kalashnikov replicas.

 

The group, whose ages range from 19 to 60, carry Kalashnikov replicas. Almost none have fighting experience.

Among them is a professional poker player, a rock musician and an electrician.

They are led by dissident and restaurateur Vadim Prokopiev. "We see a window of opportunity," Prokopiev told CNN on Monday.

"I made the call for Belarusians to join the battle for Ukraine because that's step one before step two, which is the battle for Belarus."

Most of the members, including Prokopiev, were forced to flee their country in 2020, when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko -- a Kremlin-backed, Putin ally -- cracked down on a mass protest movement after he claimed victory in a widely disputed election, which was marred by fraud.

"If Ukraine loses this war, Belarus will have zero chance to get free," Prokopiev said. "If Ukraine wins this war that means Putin's hands are too busy and he's too weakened and he won't be supporting Lukashenko with resources."

Pohonia wants to join the International Legion of Defence of Ukraine, a military unit made up of foreign volunteers, but at the time of writing they have yet to be admitted.

Hundreds of other Belarusian volunteers are already on the ground fighting alongside Ukrainian troops. Four have been killed since the start of the war, said Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

"The people of Belarus understand that the fate of Belarus depends on the fate of Ukraine and now it's very important to make Ukraine free for it to be easier to get rid of Lukashenko's regime on our soil," Tikhanovskaya told CNN on Wednesday.

A group of Belarusian dissidents are taught basic survival training skills at the Poland-Ukraine border. The aspiring volunteer fighters want to join the fight for Ukraine.

 

Moscow uses Minsk as a satellite base for its unprovoked war on Ukraine. At the start of the conflict, Putin ordered troops into Ukraine through the Russian and Belarusian borders.

Belarus has been used as a springboard for many of Russia's air operations in Ukraine, according to intelligence collected by NATO surveillance planes.

And the Ukrainian military says it has shot down several missiles fired towards its territory from Belarus.

After Russia failed to gain the ground it wanted around Kyiv, forces retreated back into Belarus to regroup and redeploy.

And NATO fears the Kremlin may even call on Lukashenko to deploy his army to bolster Moscow's forces on the battlefield. It's a prospect that would see Belarusian exiles and Minsk's army on opposite sides of the frontline.

The Biden administration has punished Minsk with sanctions targeting Belarusian defense firms, the country's defense minister and has suspended normal trade relations with the country.

But Lukashenko has shown no remorse for his role as a facilitator. "We didn't start this war, our conscience is clear. I'm glad it started," he told reporters in March.

And earlier this week, Putin thanked Lukashenko for his unwavering support, saying, "We never had any doubts that if somebody was to offer their shoulder to us, it would be Belarus." 

Most of Pohonia's members fled Belarus in 2020 when Lukashenko brutally cracked down on a mass opposition movement in Belarus.

 

Belarus's resistance, fractured and frail since the 2020 crackdown, said volunteer fighters are part of wider efforts to destabilize the Lukashenko regime.

"All those Belarusians fighters are real heroes," Tikhanovskaya said of the volunteers. "Now they are defending Ukraine and maybe one day they could defend Belarus as well," she said, referencing the opposition's wish to see Lukashenko's regime overthrown.

In Belarus, a railway line used by Russian forces to ferry supplies into Ukraine was partially severed by activists in April when Belarusian police opened fire and arrested three men calling it an act of terrorism, according to Belarus state news agency Belta.

And cyber activists recently hacked Belarusian state institutions involved in the war against Ukraine and continue to fight Russian disinformation online, Tikhanovskaya said.

But these small measures have yet to pose any real threat to the 28-year rule of Lukashenko, who is often referred to as Europe's last dictator.

"A long journey starts somewhere so we build a small force to build a bigger force," Prokopiev said.

The exiles now hope that ​Lukashenko's reliance on Moscow ties his future to Putin, and the outcome of what, so far, is a faltering military invasion of Ukraine.

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Biden calls atrocities in Ukraine a "genocide" for the first time

 

US President Joe Biden speaks to members of the media prior to boarding Air Force One in Des Moines, Iowa on April 12. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden said Tuesday the atrocities being uncovered in Ukraine qualify as genocide, a designation he'd previously avoided but that he now believes is warranted as scenes of devastation emerge from towns once overrun by Russian troops.

"I called it genocide because it's become clearer and clearer that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is just trying to wipe out even the idea of being Ukrainian. The evidence is mounting," Biden told reporters in Iowa after using the term earlier in a speech.
"It's different than it was last week, the more evidence that's coming out," he continued. "Literally, the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine — and we're going to only learn more and more about the devastation."
"We'll let the lawyers decide, internationally, whether or not it qualifies," he concluded, "but it sure seems that way to me."

It was a dramatic rhetorical escalation in the US view of what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, which Biden has previously deemed war crimes. And it appeared to be the latest example of the President allowing his emotion-driven views of the war to outpace official US policy toward the conflict, even as he was voicing a position held by many Americans horrified by the scenes of brutality in Ukraine.

It garnered near-immediate praise from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who began accusing Russia of committing genocide inside his country last week.

"True words of a true leader @POTUS," Zelensky wrote on Twitter. "Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil. We are grateful for US assistance provided so far and we urgently need more heavy weapons to prevent further Russian atrocities."

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