What will it take to finish him off? That's the question that
close observers of Boris Johnson's premiership have been asking for weeks.
On Monday, a much-anticipated report by a senior civil servant into a
series of lockdown-breaching gatherings held at Downing Street in
2020 and 2021, some allegedly attended by Johnson himself, delivered a verdict
so damning that any other national leader might have been expected to resign.
There were "failures of leadership and judgment," Sue Gray
concluded, with a "serious failure" to uphold the standards expected
of members of government.
The evidence gathered by Gray was sufficiently serious that
London's Metropolitan Police have launched an investigation. Johnson could even
end up being questioned over the allegations that Downing Street staffers held
boozy gatherings with little connection to their workplace activities while
citizens dutifully followed the rules and said goodbye to terminally ill
loved-ones over Zoom.
After the report's publication, Johnson decided to hit back
at criticism by falsely accusing the opposition Labour leader, Keir Starmer, a
former chief prosecutor for England, of "failing to prosecute" a notorious British pedophile, Jimmy Savile. The claim --
which circulates in rightwing conspiracy theory circles -- has been debunked
multiples times (a decision not to prosecute Savile was taken by a regional division
of the prosecution service).
Boris Johnson sips a pint of beer at a pub in Wolverhampton,
central England, on April 19, 2021, while campaigning for local elections.
Johnson's failure to withdraw it fully prompted his policy
chief -- a longtime aide and confidante -- to quit in disgust on Thursday
evening, issuing a blistering statement that reverberated around UK government
circles.
Four more senior officials resigned in the following hours -- some for different
reasons, but it gave the impression that Downing Street was in freefall.
At the time of publication, Johnson clings on. And
predictions of his demise have been made prematurely many times before. But it
might now be the case that Johnson's days in Downing Street are drawing to a
close.
Once seen as a politician with a near-mythical ability to win
over opponents with a natural charm, Johnson's personal approval ratings and
his Conservative party's poll ratings have been steadily falling since the
so-called Partygate scandal exploded last year. No one around Johnson or in his
party is pretending that the situation isn't very bad, possibly terminal.
Nonetheless, the sad reality for the numerous Conservatives
who would like to see back of Johnson is that they have no idea if they are
strong enough to remove him from power. And this might be what keeps
Johnson in office, despite everything.
There is certainly the political will to commit regicide, but
there is no clear alternative -- either in personnel or ideology -- to
challenge the king.
To depose a Conservative leader, 15% of the parliamentary
party must submit letters of no-confidence. Despite much dark talk of plots,
that threshold has not yet been met. That isn't because of any overwhelming
support or loyalty to Johnson. It's more that his most vocal critics are not
factional leaders within the party. The vast majority of Conservatives that
talked to CNN think that if a vote were triggered it would be by accident
rather than design. Indeed, most are resigned to months of things getting worse
before they get better and, for now, don't think there's much to be done about
it.
Why? Multiple Conservative members of parliament from across
different wings of the party spoke of being exhausted, confused, angry and
depressed. Those who spoke to CNN did so on the condition of anonymity
because of the sensitivity of the situation and so they could be as honest as
possible.
"It's all terrible, but no one's sure what to do,"
says a senior Conservative lawmaker. "I am not even sure removing him is
the best idea (because) all alternatives are a huge, untested risk," the
lawmaker adds, referencing not just the individuals who might replace Johnson,
but also the ideology they would bring to government.
Even those who do believe Johnson needs to be removed from
office before the next general election cannot agree on when it should
happen.
A semi-loyal government minister who didn't wish to embarrass
Johnson, but accepted his departure this year was both necessary and
inevitable, said that "most in this camp want to keep (Johnson) in place
until either the full Gray or police report are published, or until after May's
local elections."
Efforts to remove Johnson will likely gather pace if the
police or the full Gray report -- which will emerge once detectives'
investigation is complete -- come to the conclusion that the Prime Minister
either broke the law, misled parliament or engaged in some other kind of
indefensible behavior. However, no-one knows when the that date will
come, and it might not be before the next electoral test for Johnson's
Conservative Party, local elections in early May.
If Conservatives suffer major losses in those polls, it will
be very hard not to pin them on Johnson. There is no doubt that the opposition
parties' election campaigns will be almost entirely focussed on the Prime
Minister, his trustworthiness and his personal conduct.
Boris Johnson speaks during Prime Minister's Questions in the
House of Commons on January 12, 2022. Johnson apologized for attending a garden
party during Britain's first coronavirus lockdown, but brushed aside opposition
demands that he resign for breaching his government's rules.
In either event, it seems that the preferred window for
replacing Johnson, among those who oppose him, is the summer parliamentary
recess, when Westminster largely shuts down. This affords the time for a proper
leadership contest as well as time for a new leader to build their platform ahead
of the next scheduled general election in May 2024.
However simple that sounds, there is one small snag for those
seeking a smooth transition of power: Johnson and his allies do not want to
quit and believe they can hang on, whatever happens.
Multiple advisers and ministerial allies in Johnson's inner
circle told CNN that they had considered calling the plotters' bluff and
calling a confidence vote in the PM with an ultimatum: Back me or sack
me.
Historically, this has been an effective means by which
embattled politicians have shored up strength. However, Johnson's allies are
confident that his internal opposition is so weak that such drastic action is
unnecessary.
"Put it this way, if Royal Mail were relying on MPs to
buy stamps to send in letters they would go out of business very quickly,"
said one key ally.
A cabinet source told CNN that "back me or sack me
implies he's fighting from a position of weakness, which we just don't believe
he is."
Even those most critical of Johnson agree, at least in part,
with this analysis. One former minister said that "the summer might be too
late, they are missing the window to get rid of him right now," citing
frustration among voters that government has become paralyzed by the scandal.
A senior Conservative critic of the Prime Minister said that
the best hope of removing Johnson sooner rather than later would be an
"organic, uncoordinated" submission of MPs' letters that accidentally
built momentum where "things would go south quickly." The critic
admitted this was wishful thinking, however.
After weeks of Partygate -- and numerous missteps by Johnson
himself -- Conservatives find themselves trapped.
They know that Johnson is harming the party. They know that
trying to remove him will be a bloody, public war that they could ultimately
lose. They know that there are no guarantees that sacking him will make
anything better: Johnson, after all, is probably the only politician in the
country who defies gravity so regularly that it's not impossible he could ride
the scandal out and carry on winning elections. And a new leader could be less
effective and hand the keys to 10 Downing Street to another party at the next
election.
Everything is so unclear and confusing that few in the upper
ranks of the Conservative party seem to have a clue as to what to do.
The longer this goes on, the more MPs will find themselves
tarred by whatever public position they take -- for Johnson, against
Johnson, or conspicuously silent. And all the while their leader staggers on,
protesting that his battering amounts to little more a flesh wound.
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