Looks like Earth is already halfway to the danger zone.
Less than two
weeks before a crucial global climate summit in Paris kicks off, NOAA, NASA and
other global temperature monitors released data showing that the planet is
halfway to two degrees of warming, the much publicized limit of
"controllable" climate change.
Global data from NOAA released Thursday shows that
the average temperature across the entire planet for the month of October was a
record shattering 0.98 degrees Celsius (1.76 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than
average for the month of October -- making it the highest average temperature
reached compared to normal in Earth's historical record.
The list of superlatives for the month is staggering:
-- the warmest
October ever observed (in 136 years of NOAA records),
-- the warmest
month ever compared to average (out of 1,630 months),
-- the sixth
consecutive month breaking a global temperature record, and
-- seven of
the 10 warmest months have occurred in 2015.
The NOAA data
is backed up by similar data sets maintained by NASA and the Japan
Meteorological Agency, which also ranked October as the hottest month on record
compared to average. All of this virtually guarantees that 2015 will rank as
the warmest year overall, breaking the record that was set just last year.
Help from El Nino
The temperatures got a
boost this year from what may end up being the strongest El Nino ever
recorded reaching its peak. El Nino, which is characterized by warming of ocean
waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is helping to drive global temperatures
upward this year. With all of the extra heat coming from the oceans during an
El Nino, years that feature the phenomenon tend to be the warmest years,
whereas years that feature a La Nina -- which contain cooler than normal waters
in the Pacific -- tend to be the coolest years.
And while this year's
El Nino is already one of the three-strongest El Nino events ever have seen, it
cannot fully account for all of the warming. After all, 13 of the 15 warmest
years on record have occurred since the year 2000, and this is the first year
to feature a strong El Nino since 1998. In fact, recent La Nina years, such as
2010 and 2007, were warmer than El Nino's that occurred several decades
earlier. So while El Nino and La Nina can move the needle a little up and down,
the overall trend continues to climb higher and higher thanks largely to
man-made climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.
But when you add in a
super-charged El Nino on top of a planet being continually warmed by greenhouse
gas emissions, you wind up with years that are literally off the charts.
Beyond two degrees
So what happens if the
planet breaches the two degrees of warming threshold? Nothing good, according to
reports reviewed by CNN's John Sutter, who has written extensively
on the subject.
Sutter -- who pulled
reports from the National Research Council, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change and the World Bank -- says wildfires in the United States could
significantly increase in size, hurricanes would be slightly more intense, more
species would be at risk for extinction, Arctic ice would continue to melt,
crop yields would decrease and the availability of freshwater would
significantly decline.
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